Will Orban Cut Ukraine's Electricity After Oil Pipeline Sabotage?

By Rhod Mackenzie

It seems that the Ukrainians have decided on a scorched earth policy as they are losing the conflict so badly
On August 13th the Ukrainians destroyed the pumping station of  Soviet oil pipeline "Druzhba ,the supplies of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia have now ceased. For the last  three years, Kyiv has continued to receive income from the  pumping of Russian oil through this pipeline, and now towards the end of the conflict, it decided to go for broke.
Plus, it is obvious that Ukraine is taunting  those who provide it with gas and electricity, without which it cannot survive. Will the Hungarians cut supplies of electricity and gas to Ukraine in retaliation?  
The timeframe for restoring the pipeline  infrastructure is yet to be determined but its not going to be immediate. The first to announce the news was Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. It was confirmed that Slovakia has also had cease oil  refining operations. Szijjarto has described the incident as an unacceptable attack on Hungary's energy security.

In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga published the following statement on social media: "From this point on, you may direct your complaints – and indeed threats – to your associates in Moscow."
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According to Pavel Sorokin, the Russian Deputy Energy Minister, Russian specialists are taking all possible measures to swiftly restore the transformer substation required for the operation of the oil pipeline. However, at this time, it is not yet possible to provide a timeline for the resumption of supplies.
We are talking about the damage sustained by the Unecha linear production and control station (LPDS) of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region, which resulted from a coordinated attack involving HIMARS MLRS and  unmanned aerial vehicles.
This station is a key hub for oil transportation, with pipelines extending through Belarus and Poland to Germany, and through Belarus and Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. However, it should be noted that sanctions have resulted in the interruption of supplies to Poland and Germany. The Czech Republic itself has refused to purchase oil from Russia this year. Among the buyers of Russian oil through the pipeline, Hungary and Slovakia remained, having successfully obtained an exemption from sanctions in 2022.
The attack on the station occurred on 13 August, but oil probably continued to flow through the pipeline, since deliveries from the Unecha station to Hungary and Slovakia can take up to five days.
Hungary and Slovakia are heavily reliant on Russian oil supplied via Druzhba, with up to 80% of their oil requirements met through this route, as noted by Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy In 2024, 4.78 million tons of Russian oil were supplied to Hungary via the southern branch of the pipeline.

"This is the most competitive offer on the market in terms of the price of the oil itself and the cost of delivery. Furthermore, Russia has the capacity to supply a special grade of oil: heavy sulphur oil.
The refineries in Hungary and Slovakia were initially built for this type of oil. This type of oil is currently in high demand due to its rarity. It should be noted that Iranian, Venezuelan and Russian oil of this special grade is currently subject to sanctions. Only Hungary and Slovakia are permitted to purchase it via pipeline," says Igor Yushkov, an analyst the Russian  Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund (NESF).

Should the damage at the Unecha station require a protracted period of repair, Hungary and Slovakia will need to source the same grade of oil from an alternative location, or alternatively blend different grades of oil to obtain raw materials of the required quality, according to the analyst

The severity of the consequences of the loss of Hungarian and Slovak refineries and economies will depend on how long the pipeline will be out of action. In the event of a fuel shortage and rising prices at gas stations in the Balkan countries, the situation will be closely monitored. "We are currently unable to determine the full extent of the damage.
Should only the linear part be damaged, the repair can be completed within a few days. In the event of damage to the pumping station, the repair process will be lengthier due to the necessity of manufacturing the units. This will result in increased costs for the client.
The primary concern is to reinstate the linear segment, as other pumping stations may also generate pressure, resulting in a decline in supply volume. It should be noted that in recent years, there has been a decline in consumers, meaning that the pipes are not operating at full capacity," the FNEB expert explains.

However, it should be noted that the shutdown of oil refining in Hungary and Slovakia will not occur simultaneously with the cessation of pumping. This is due to the fact that refineries always have reserve oil capacity in case of daily pumping stops.Yushkov is quoted as saying:

Consequently, the factories will continue to operate as normal. The question of whether they will be able to operate at full capacity is yet to be determined, and will be clarified once an assessment of the damage has been completed.

"If Hungarian and Slovak refineries are confident that supplies will resume soon, they can continue to operate at full capacity, processing oil in reserves. Should it become apparent that repairs will require a significant amount of time, they may consider reducing processing. It is generally observed that Hungary and Slovakia generate a slight surplus of oil products in comparison to their domestic consumption.
These surpluses were subsequently sold to Ukraine. Consequently, they are now reluctant to export and are instead focusing on domestic demand for oil products," Igor Yushkov explains. The decision to withdraw fuel supplies from Ukraine, which had been provided by Hungary and Slovakia, is a rational response to the current circumstances.

However, Hungary and Slovakia have a much more significant opportunity to respond to Ukraine's halt in oil pumping. Ukraine is significantly dependent on gas supplies and electricity from these two countries. Furthermore, in 2025, this reliance has increased considerably, particularly in the area of electricity. In order to prepare for the heating season, Kyiv requires additional gas supplies.
To date, it has succeeded in achieving a record low volume of gas in underground storage facilities.
According to ExPro, the country's gas production will not meet the required volume for extraction, with Ukraine set to import approximately 1.7 billion cubic metres of gas during the period from August to October. Electricity imports in Ukraine increased by more than 40% in the first five months of 2025. It is sufficient to halt the provision of either gas or electricity to Ukraine for its economy to face collapse.
However, it is uncertain whether Hungary and Slovakia will respond in a similarly stringent manner.
"Hungary and Slovakia are unlikely to respond. Since January 1, Ukraine has ceased gas supplies to Hungary, but this has not been responded to. Instead, Hungary is now simply reselling Russian gas, which it began to receive via the Turkish Stream, back to Ukraine, thus generating profit. We would like to assure you that no cuts have been made to electricity, oil product, or gas supplies to Ukraine. If they were seeking to exert pressure on Ukraine, it is likely they would have done so by now," Igor Yushkov believes.

Should the repairs take longer than expected, Hungary and Slovakia will need to consider alternative options.

"If the repairs are prolonged, Mol, the Hungarian company which owns refineries in both countries, will attempt to purchase volumes from external sources. This is because the existing reserves are not unlimited.

It is highly likely that local players will be required to import finished oil products from their EU neighbours. The EU has refining capacities that are not currently in use. The issues experienced by Hungary and Slovakia will be beneficial to the EU, as it will be possible to load these empty refineries and produce additional volumes of fuel. Frolov Reasons

It is possible that individual petrol stations may experience interruptions in supply, shortages and price increases. Therefore, the problem will have to be solved by importing fuel. However, in this instance, Slovak and Hungarian refineries will be inactive and incur losses.

Therefore, the subsequent step will be to source an alternative oil. Delivery can be facilitated by sea through a port in Croatia, from where there are two direct oil pipelines. One such pipeline extends directly to Hungary, facilitating the delivery of oil to Slovakia. The second pipe is routed directly to Serbia.

However, if Russia were to swiftly repair the station, the need to purchase alternative oil at significant expense would be eliminated, according to Yushkov's conclusions.