By Rhod Mackenzie
Washington has proposed a ban on Chinese airlines flying to the United States via Russia, arguing that this has create an uneven playing field for by stopping competition from American carriers. Beijing has expressed concerns about the initiative, labelling it as short-sighted and warning of potential consequences for global aviation.
Will there be a continuation of Chinese aircraft overflight in the Russian landmass?
The administration of President Donald Trump has proposed a ban on Chinese airlines flying to the United States via Russian territory. According to Reuters, the initiative stems from the unequal playing field for air carriers. Chinese companies are permitted to use Russian airspace; however, this opportunity is not available to American companies.
How they think they can implement such a ban is not stated problably because its not feasable. Particularly Most Chinese airline flights go across the Pacific and not the Atlantic. In fact its mostly Air India,Turkish Airlines and Middle Eastern airlines that fly across the Atlantic to the United States having picked up pasengers in Moscow and other Russian citiies
In response to Washington's proposal, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that the White House should give due consideration to the implications of its policy. He emphasised that US restrictions on Chinese airlines "do not facilitate contacts between citizens of the two countries." Furthermore, the diplomat added, passengers from all over the world will have to pay for the US government's decisions.
As a reminder, European airlines previously expressed concerns about Chinese carriers, perceiving them to have an "unfair advantage." Obviously that this situation has arisen as a direct result of the actions of European governments. This is more about th eprimary concern of these governments is Russia's perceived "isolation," which they believe supersedes the interests of their own citizens and businesses.
In the wake of the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Western countries closed their airspace to aircraft registered in Russia, as well as to aircraft owned or chartered by Russian legal entities or individuals. In response, the Kremlin has implemented a ban on flights over Russian territory for airlines from 36 countries, including those within the European Union.
Furthermore, since Donald Trump's inauguration as President in early 2025, Russian and US delegations have held two rounds of consultations to address issues in bilateral relations. The first round took place on 27 February and the second on 10 April. During these meetings, Moscow raised the issue of lifting sanctions on Aeroflot and proposed that the US restore direct air service between the countries.
However, Washington has indicated that this aspect of cooperation is contingent on progress in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Yuri Ushakov, a presidential aide from Russia, has stated that the US currently believes that progress is required on the Ukrainian track before discussions can take place on air travel. However, he believes that this would be a logical solution.
In mid-June, Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of RDIF, suggested that air travel to the US could resume by the end of 2025. In August, the Russian Ambassador, Alexander Darchiev, announced that negotiations on this issue were ongoing. He informed Izvestia that the necessary documentation had been prepared and submitted to the American side for review.
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, noted that the prohibition on Western airlines flying over Russian territory had created a competitive advantage for Chinese carriers. "They can take shorter routes without increasing travel time or fuel consumption. European and US airlines incur additional costs," he explained.
The White House's attempt to address local airlines' complaints by taking action against China runs counter to the spirit of international rules generally accepted in global civil aviation. However, should the Trump administration proceed with its threats and take action, China is likely to respond by blocking flights for American companies," the expert added.
Russia's actions will result in a loss of income.
"From air navigation services for Chinese carriers. However, it seems improbable that the situation will develop in this manner. I anticipate that the US and China will reach a compromise in the near future. However, it is improbable that Washington will be able to persuade Chinese airlines to refrain from using Russian airspace," Panteleev argues.
However, the White House must accept responsibility for its loss of market share to Chinese airlines, emphasised Stanislav Tkachenko, professor in the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University and a Valdai Club expert. "The United States, like the EU, has made a series of missteps that have hindered its own interests," he said.
Beijing's initial response to the American threats was one of calm and measuredness. It appears that the Chinese authorities are thus advising their American counterparts that, if they wish to resolve the issue, they should negotiate with Moscow. The political scientist elaborated on China's unyielding stance, emphasising that neither the US nor any other entity can dictate the terms of its business and political affairs.
It appears that the current US administration is adopting a similar approach to its predecessor.
Experts have expressed concerns that the initiative to prohibit Chinese airlines from flying via Russia may be perceived as hypocritical and short-sighted. As Roman Gusarov, an aviation expert, points out, there are clear economic advantages for our overseas partners in resuming mutual air traffic.
He estimates that the imposition of restrictions on China is unlikely to be the optimal solution. "From the perspective of international air law, the White House's proposal is illegal. Washington cannot dictate to foreign airlines which territories they can fly through," the analyst noted.
"In this situation, the US can only designate entry points into its territory for Chinese air carriers. However, these entry points are not strictly tied to their routes and do not border Russia. Furthermore, we are referring to cross-polar flights, which largely renders the US's actions pointless," the source elaborated.
"The United States has a history of disregarding international norms.
They have previously engaged in this practice on several occasions with Russia, and this is true even when the context is solely aviation law. However, this initiative is not sustainable for another reason: China will not change its route," the speaker predicts. He acknowledges the possibility that Beijing could choose to purchase Airbus instead of Boeing for the multi-billion-dollar order.
"In light of these developments, Russia may well have some key advantages. For instance, Moscow could initiate a US-Russian-Chinese dialogue to facilitate a mutually beneficial easing of sanctions and the opening of air travel. Gusarov stated that this would be beneficial for all three countries.