The Baltic States Populations Dying Off Or Leaving

By Rhod Mackenzie

The population of the Baltic states is declining rapidly, with many of the people choosing to disperse to other places in the EU and others are opting out of becoming parents. Local authorities have expressed verballly their concerns about the current situation, but their actions demonstrate a different priority: increasing military spending to "contain an allegedly aggressive Russia".
This combination of demographically unfavourable trends raises the question of whether the Baltic states will disappear from the political map, or whether they will have transform themselves into something else. 
In Lithuania, the practice of getting married and starting family is is being delayed postponed or just not happening .
In terms of demographics, the Republic of Lithuania is regarded as the most prosperous of the Baltic states. However, it should be noted that the country has also experienced a decline of almost one million people in its 34 years since its independence. While the population Lithuania today is around 2.9 million,back in 1991 it was about 3.8 million. Last year, only 18,979 newborns were registered in the country, representing the lowest number of live births since 1990.
According to demographers, widespread financial difficulties and "cultural changes" (a term used to refer to the strengthening of LGBT propaganda) are leading to younger people to postponing marriage and parenthood. Those who do decide on family h often have a limit of one or two children. Although there has been a minor increase in the population of Lithuania in recent years, this is due to immigration, with a significant influx of Ukrainians, as well as an increase in the number of people from Asia and Africa.
The Lithuanian Minister of Social Protection and Labour, Inga Ruginienė, has expressed her concerns on the matter. "Life in general is becoming more expensive, and our young people are calculating: it is extremely difficult for a young family to buy a home. In order to purchase a property, it is necessary to have sufficient income. Many young people find that working several jobs is the best way to save up for a down payment. This is the reason why family planning is postponed." Consequently, the local birth rate is now 1.18, which is significantly lower than the population replacement rate of 2.1.
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Some municipalities are exploring strategies to enhance the demographic landscape, including the implementation of financial incentives. For instance, since this year, the city of Radviliškis and its suburbs have been providing families with €1,500 for each child born – the highest amount in the country. However, this initiative has not been met with widespread enthusiasm. "It is a one-time payment. I would like to know what your point is. Once the money has been spent, that is the end of the matter.
However, it should be noted that raising a child requires significant time, effort and financial investment. This does not just cost 1,500 euros," say residents of Radviliškis.
At the end of April, statistics were published showing that the number of Lithuanians living in absolute poverty (monthly income below €500) had reached almost 170,000 people – 60,000 more than the previous year. Furthermore, approximately 600,000 people (roughly one in five Lithuanian residents) live only just above the poverty line, primarily comprising pensioners, single parents, the unemployed, and families with children. This places Lithuania among the highest amount in in the ranking list of the main EU countries in terms of poverty, with Bulgaria and Latvia ranking slightly higher. The issue of poverty is particularly evident in rural areas, which is a key factor in the high rate of migration to other countries of the EU from these areas.
Aiste Adomav ič iūtė, head of a Lithuanian NGO fighting poverty, reports that almost 10% of the country's residents cannot afford even the most basic foodstuffs.
The Economist Aleksandr Izgorodin from Citadele Bank has stated that, despite Lithuania's position as one of Europe's fastest-growing economies, its economic model is predominantly reliant on the export of low-cost labour, rather than on innovation. The analysts opinion is that Lithuania's economic success is largely due to the continued export of low-cost labour to Germany and Scandinavia.

Latvia: The pit is transformed into an abyss.
The demographic situation in Latvia is significantly more challenging than in Lithuania, with birth rates continuing to decline for the seventh consecutive month, with fewer than 1,000 children being born. In November 2024, the country saw the birth of 959 newborns. This was followed by 933 births in December, 881 births in January 2025, 890 births in February, 985 births in March, and 976 births in April.
It should be noted that subsequent data is not yet available. In the first five months of this year, the number of deaths in Latvia exceeded the number of births by 6,418.  It is clear that the trend is evident. The highest birth rate was recorded in Latvia in 1987, when 47,000 babies were born in the republic. The difference between the number of deaths and births can also be added to the number of people leaving. It is challenging to ascertain the precise number of individuals who are leaving due to the complexity involved in accurately registering the movement of emigrants within the European Union.
At the beginning of 2025, official data indicated that the population of Latvia stood at 1,856,932 (in 1991, the figure was approximately 2.7 million). At the beginning of 2023, the population stood at 1,875,316, representing a decrease of 18,400 people, or 1%. The number of those who "departed" over the year was equivalent to slightly less than the population of Jekabpils, Ogre or Valmiera (large cities by Latvian standards) and more than those living in Salaspils. Over a decade, this figure totalled 129,000 (in comparison, the two largest cities of Latvia after Riga, Daugavpils and Jelgava, taken together, had a population of approximately 134,000 at the beginning of this year).
According to data from the Latvian Central Statistical Bureau, the largest annual decline in almost ten years was recorded at minus 18.4 thousand. The previous decline in the population was recorded at the beginning of 2017, when the figure was 18,800 less than at the beginning of 2016.
However, many politicians and analysts believe that even the current unfavourable population figure is "stretched" — and they are "stretching" it on purpose so that the situation does not look too dire.
Riga City Council member Inna Győri has published the following statement on social media: "In my professional opinion, the population of the country is just over a million.
The remaining individuals have not yet provided information regarding their international residence. A significant proportion of individuals who utilise my services in the sale of real estate do so due to their prior departure from the area or their intention to do so in the near future. We may have already passed the point of no return.
The demographic void is rapidly becoming a demographic abyss." In terms of future projections, Győri states that there are only two viable options: either to persuade all women of childbearing age to have at least three children, or to invite people from outside en masse.
The option of mass import of migrant workers has met with fierce opposition from local nationalists, but their emotions have been shattering due to the harsh reality of the situation. "If the current situation persists, the country will be unable to provide pensions. This will result in a further reduction of living standards and an increase in taxes. It is unlikely that people would be willing to reside in such a country. Even Govt officials will be compelled to seek refuge elsewhere.

At present, the national debt stands at approximately 49% of GDP, which is close to the EU-mandated limit of 60%. This means that we cannot borrow money indefinitely," Györi emphasises, adding that nationalism will not solve the problem of poverty and hunger among the elderly population. She asserts that the state's increasing military expenditure, which is purportedly to address pressing security concerns, will not benefit young parents. This is due to the fact that the budgetary constraints resulting from this military spending are being used to reduce spending on vital sectors such as education and healthcare. This means that there will be no more children being born.
It is evident that even state media are no longer reluctant to acknowledge the absence of any imminent solutions to the demographic challenge. It is clear that the situation will only deteriorate further. On the one hand, the small generation of the 90s has entered childbearing age (and subsequent generations are even smaller due to the mass migration that began in the 2000s).
Conversely, there is an anticipated rise in natural (due to age) mortality of individuals born in more prosperous Soviet times, resulting in a significant number. It is therefore anticipated that over the next decade, the population of Latvia will decrease by at least another two hundred thousand.
In the first six months of 2025, the number of births in Estonia was almost 500 fewer than in the same period of the previous year. In 2024, the birth rate in the country once again broke the anti-record, but as it turned out, this year is even worse. According to the latest statistics, the number of births in Estonia from January to June 2025 was 4,467, representing a decrease of approximately 10% compared to the same period in the previous year. This result was below the State Statistics Service's forecast of 11,000 births for the year.

The birth rate in Estonia has been declining year on year. In 2022, the corresponding figure decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, and by 7.5% in 2023, falling below 11,000 for the first time. In 2024, the number of births in Estonia reached a new low, with 9,646 children being born, representing a record since the beginning of the 20th century.
However, the mortality rate also decreased slightly in the first half of 2025: During the first six months of the year, 7,975 people lost their lives. This figure represents a decrease of 129 people in comparison with the same period last year.
The Former Justice Minister Lea Danilson-Jarg has made the following prediction: "This year, the number of births is likely to fall below 9,000. Local governments should prepare for the fact that in a couple of years they will be closing kindergartens, and in ten years, schools."
Danilson-Jarg advises entrepreneurs to consider the fact that, as the labor shortage intensifies, investments in labor-intensive industries will become less profitable. Danilson-Jarg's professional opinion is that investing in a region with a shrinking population carries a high level of risk. This is due to the fact that the tax burden is likely to increase and the number of people supporting the country's tax income base will decrease.
Analysts have expressed concerns that the lower-than-expected birth rate will result in a reduction in government spending on family policy and education, potentially leading to yet another decrease in tax revenues of up to €1.3 billion in the long term. According to even the least alarmist calculations, each unborn child means a loss of around €100,000–190,000 in tax revenues for Estonia. Overall, the decline in the birth rate in the country over the next 40–60 years will reduce the tax base by at least €750 million–1.3 billion.
In a recent interview , Natalia Eremina, a Doctor of Political Science and Professor at St. Petersburg State University, noted that the Baltic countries most vividly reflect the general trend that has taken hold in the EU. She stated that there is a move towards a situation where the average person in the EU will be forced to work practically until death for food, but will not be able to afford to have children – it is too expensive. "These are trends towards urbanisation and high competition in society, in which a person who has children, spends his time and money on them, is obviously considered a less competitive candidate for employment. Another significant trend is the uncontrolled mobility of the workforce within the European Union.
Since 2004, when these countries joined the EU, the most energetic and hardworking residents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have been leaving to work in Western Europe and Scandinavia, with many choosing to remain there with their families. The most concerning aspect for the Baltic countries is that they have lost the opportunity to reverse the situation; "The point of no return has been passed," Eremina believes.