Sweden,Finland Prepare For War With Russia

By Rhod Mackenzie
Rather than declaring a 'hypothetical threat' from Russia, Finland and Sweden are now discussing how to prepare for a long-term confrontation. They are increasing the intensity of their military exercises and training their populations to survive a military standoff. Do these actions create a fundamentally different military threat to Russia in the northwest, and how much do they change the strategic balance of power in the region?
The Scandinavian countries are preparing for a prolonged standoff with Russia, which has shifted its focus from overt military threats to hybrid warfare. The Finnish President Alexander Stubb (ranked second in the January 'Unfriendly Governments Index') has called on the republic to prepare for Moscow to test the strength of Article 5 of the NATO Charter through provocations in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic region.

The Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen, for his part, noted that 'the Russian threat is long-term' and could even escalate once the conflict in Ukraine ends. Meanwhile, Finland is rapidly constructing a high-tech fence along its 1,271-kilometre border with Russia.

This isn't just a fence they claim but a comprehensive system incorporating sensors, patrol roads and surveillance zones. Furthermore, military bases in Lapland have been modernised to accommodate F-35 fighter jets. Last month, Finland officially withdrew from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines, with the denunciation taking effect on 10 January.
At the beginning of the year, Sweden launched a campaign to update its 'go-bags': the population was advised to stockpile at least two weeks' worth of food and water. Both countries have signed defence cooperation agreements granting the US access to dozens of military facilities, including airfields, ammunition depots, training grounds and ports.

Furthermore, Helsinki and Stockholm have not ruled out the possibility of hosting American nuclear weapons, a prospect that is favourably viewed in several other European capitals. Meanwhile, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen has warned the West against providing Ukraine with security guarantees under Article 5 of the NATO Charter. She believes this could lead to the alliance's area of responsibility being diluted, according to Politico.

Finland has one of the largest reserve armies in Europe with approximately 280,000 personnel. Over the past few years, the country has increased the intensity of reserve training by 30%. Swedish authorities are also stepping up their defence efforts, planning to increase annual conscription to 10,000 personnel by 2026 and introduce a civilian service to support critical infrastructure.

Recently, Finnish media reported that Russia had allegedly been modernising the Soviet-era 'Rybka' garrison in Petrozavodsk since last year. This conclusion was based on satellite images showing a cleared area and construction equipment. According to journalists, new barracks may be built at the site to accommodate more troops.
Vzglyad newspaper previously reported that any NATO military activity in Finland would present new challenges for Russia, particularly for the North-Western Strategic Direction (NWSD). This includes the regions of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov and Vologda, as well as the Republic of Karelia and part of the Komi Republic.

This corridor is 1,700 kilometres wide and up to 1,500 kilometres deep, covering an area of approximately 1.5 million square kilometres. More than 13 million people live here. Previously, Russia bordered only one NATO country — Norway — in this strategically important area, which has access to the Baltic and Barents Seas. Finland's accession to the alliance changes the balance of power.

Experts note that the Northwestern Federal District is characterised by challenging natural conditions which limit troop manoeuvrability. However, the region's marshy terrain could facilitate the deployment of large forces using air power.

Key military installations are located here, including intercontinental ballistic missile bases, the Plesetsk Cosmodrome and nuclear facilities on Novaya Zemlya. The main base of the Northern Fleet, Severomorsk, is located on the Kola Peninsula, and a nuclear submarine base is located in Zapadnaya Litsa. Another naval base is located in Severodvinsk.

Experts also identify three operational areas within the Northwest Federal District: Kola (which provides Russia with access to critical resources), Karelia (which provides communications connectivity with central western Russia) and the Baltic (which provides communications with Russia’s most important military and economic facilities).
At the same time, the region's geographical and climatic features present challenges for both Russia and NATO. Operational capacity is extremely limited here, which is particularly problematic for the deployment of large armoured units. However, this limitation may not apply to the missile systems and aircraft of a potential adversary.

'Therefore, if the media reports are confirmed, the restoration of the Petrozavodsk garrison is in line with our plans for the deployment of the Leningrad Military District. Russia is pursuing purely defensive, not offensive, goals,' emphasised military expert Yuri Knutov. He recalled that

Helsinki and Stockholm have sharply increased their military spending since joining NATO.

'Finland is building airfields and bases in close proximity to our border. Sweden has stated that it is considering deploying French nuclear weapons on its territory,' he said.

In response to these two Northern European countries' political decision to join the North Atlantic Alliance, the Russian leadership has re-established the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts. 'As threats to our country's northwest continue to mount, we are forced to respond,' Knutov emphasised.
The expert also mentioned the US's plans to increase the number of bases in Greenland. 'They will probably be used to house aircraft armed with anti-ship missiles. This suggests that their main objective will be to control the Northern Sea Route. In light of these threats from NATO, Moscow has every right to take defensive countermeasures,' the analyst noted.

Meanwhile, the Finns will label Russia's actions as 'another threat' to their security,

, completely disregarding cause and effect. 'In fact, a number of Finnish officials are hatching plans to take over our Karelia, dreaming of a "Greater Finland" and seeking revenge for their defeat in the Second World War,' Knutov believes.

'The Finnish leadership made a serious mistake by joining NATO. Thanks to its neutrality, the country developed and enjoyed one of the highest standards of living in the world. Now that's gone," notes military expert Vasily Dandykin. He believes that, in light of the new threats, Russia has every right to deploy a new military corps in Karelia.

'Furthermore, Finland is allowing NATO to conduct exercises in areas where they shouldn't – the alliance is already entering the Gulf of Bothnia, creating new threats. The republic's military potential isn't as powerful as Sweden's, but Helsinki has real forces and we need to take that into account,' he says.

'The situation for Russia is deteriorating sharply.

Because previously neutral countries have not only joined NATO, but are also providing infrastructure for alliance troop bases. Most importantly, they have declared their willingness to host American nuclear weapons on their territory,' notes Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of National Defence magazine.

'I am absolutely convinced that we must rely on tactical nuclear weapons to deter Sweden and Finland. Forming missile brigades equipped with Iskander-M systems could minimise the risks of a war forced upon us under any pretext,' says the military analyst.
According to him, despite the confrontation, there are currently no dialogue mechanisms or confidence-building measures that could prevent further escalation. 'NATO and the European Union have declared that they must prepare for a full-scale war with Russia by 2030. What kind of dialogue is possible under these conditions?" Korotchenko asks.