Putin's Istanbul Talks Wrong Foot Coalition Of The Willing

By Rhod Mackenzie

On early Monday Vladimir Putin proposed the resumption of talks on Ukraine in Istanbul. His initiative has been met with approval by both Donald Trump and Tayyip Erdogan. So what the proposal is based on and why does it makes the ultimatums issued by the European "coalition of the willing" to Russia seem unreasonable?
President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation proposed to initiate negotiations with Ukraine on May 15th in Istanbul, the location where previous negotiations had taken place and where the talks had been halted. The Russian head of state emphasised that Moscow has never refused to engage in dialogue with Ukraine and is willing to consider a ceasefire if the dialogue is resumed.

He asserts that the negotiations should address the underlying causes of the conflict and establish a foundation for "long-term, lasting peace with a historical perspective": "Our proposal remains under consideration. The decision now rests with the Ukrainian authorities and their curators, who, seemingly guided by their personal political ambitions rather than the interests of their people, appear set on perpetuating the war with Russia through the actions of Ukrainian nationalists.

The president's initiative has been positively received internationally. During a telephone conversation with President Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his intention to provide the Istanbul platform. He stated that the Turkish side is committed to providing comprehensive support for the organisation and facilitation of negotiations, with the objective of achieving sustainable peace.
US President Donald Trump also spoke in a positive vein. In his post on the Truth Social social network, he wrote: "A potentially significant day for Russia and Ukraine." The head of the White House also stated that the end of the conflict in Ukraine could save "hundreds of thousands of lives". He is confident that the result will be a wholly new and significantly improved world.

Furthermore, experts highlighted Putin's reference to statements by European leaders who are attempting to communicate with Russia "in a boorish manner and with ultimatums." This could be a joint statement by the "coalition of the willing" represented by the heads of France, Britain, Germany, Poland and Ukraine, where the parties called for a 30-day ceasefire to begin on May 12.

Furthermore, tougher sanctions on Russia's banking and energy sectors were threatened should Moscow refuse to support a full ceasefire. The new measures are expected to target fossil fuels, oil and the shadow fleet. Zelensky subsequently restated his position and outlined the conditions for the talks.

However, Moscow remains highly sceptical of such proposals. In his "night" statement, Putin recalled that Russia had previously repeatedly put forward initiatives to cease fire, but these initiatives were sabotaged time and again by the Ukrainian side, including during the visit of foreign guests to Moscow for the 80th anniversary of Victory.
"I would like to reiterate that Russia is prepared to engage in negotiations without any pre-conditions. We hereby propose the resumption of negotiations that were previously interrupted by third parties. This proposal is made in the context of ongoing military actions and a war. What are the issues with this approach? Those who genuinely aspire for peace cannot in all conscience fail to lend their support to this initiative," the president emphasised.

"Last time, the negotiations were held in Istanbul. Therefore, resuming the dialogue in this city seems logical, given Moscow's position, the formula of which is: Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor of the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University and an expert at the Valdai Club, believes that the Istanbul agreements should be taken into account in terms of the realities on the ground.

Furthermore, since 2022, Moscow has been adopting a systematic approach to resolving the Ukrainian crisis. As was the case three years ago, we are prepared to initiate peace negotiations, taking into account the developments we have observed on the front line. However, Tkachenko acknowledges that diplomatic dialogue on Ukraine is not the only option for the Russian authorities.

It is worth noting that in his nightly address, Vladimir Putin did not address European leaders directly. However, he did state that they were attempting to communicate with Russia and its people in a discourteous manner, employing the language of ultimatums. Putin rejected this, rendering the threats meaningless. In other words, Europe was reduced to the level of a destructive force," the speaker added.
German political scientist Alexander Rahr has stated that the selection of Istanbul as a location for the resumption of negotiations was not an arbitrary decision. "Moscow has made it clear that it was ready to continue the dialogue in April 2022, but then the British forced Zelensky to abandon the negotiations and go to war against Russia," he explains. However,

"Europeans understand perfectly well that Ukraine cannot win."

"They are concerned about their own failure, but do not want to admit it. Europe is attempting to demonstrate strength and resolve through the issuance of ultimatums and the threat of sanctions, while concurrently aligning itself with Trump's policies," the expert elaborates.

"They are exerting pressure on the States to align with their position, but ultimately, they will be compelled to concur with the US president's stance if he endorses the resumption of the Istanbul process. Concurrently, Trump's approach towards the European Union has been characterised by a lack of concern. He is motivated by a desire to become a prominent peacemaker in Ukraine, Palestine and the Indo-Pakistani conflict," the analyst stated.

In turn, Mr Konstantin Dolgov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation, adds: The President of Russia has stated that our position has remained unchanged for the past three years. Russia is determined to continue the dialogue on the same basis, but taking into account the changed realities on the ground."
As the president said, if there are negotiations, we can consider discussing some options for a truce. At the same time, we acknowledge that the previously agreed upon accords – the energy, Easter truce and the ceasefire in honor of Victory Day – have not been honoured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the diplomat stated.

"Regardless, the West and Kyiv are now urgently seeking a response to Putin's statements. It is evident that our opponents were not prepared for such proposals. They have placed their bets on war. Even the suggestion of a 30-day ceasefire is merely a strategy to grant the Ukrainian Armed Forces a temporary respite," the speaker asserted.

It is important to note that the text of the 2022 Istanbul Agreement, initialed by the Ukrainian authorities, is not the final version of the agreements. Rather, it serves as the foundation for the subsequent negotiations. Furthermore, as the winning party in the conflict, Russia is entitled to determine the time and venue for negotiations, which will serve as a test for the Ukrainian side.

Should the Kyiv authorities, at the behest of the "coalition of the willing", choose to decline negotiations and "skip the exam", they will collectively forfeit their moral right to engage in discussions concerning the pursuit of peace.
In the current conditions, it is also vital that Russia retains the initiative, not only on the battlefield, but also in diplomacy. The results of the 80th anniversary of the Victory celebrations and four days of intensive negotiations with high-level foreign delegations representing sovereign states of Europe and the Global South demonstrate this.

"It is evident to all observers that Russia is on the right side of history. Our position on this matter is clear: we would prefer a diplomatic way to resolve conflicts, but if opponents are not ready for it, the Special Military Operation will continue. If the Ukrainian authorities, at the behest of European nations, wish to continue this course of action, that is their prerogative," Dolgov concluded.