Poland and Finland have decided to expand border cooperation with Belarus and Russia.,

By Rhod Mackenzie

Despite the continued presence of significant Russophobic rhetoric, Poland has decided to expand border cooperation with Belarus, while Finland is hinting at the imminent opening of its border with Russia. So  why is  Lithuania is calling this a claiming "low punch from the devious cunning Poles" and what are  reasons are for Russia's neighbours  acting in this way?
Prior to the current era of significant upheaval, Poland and Belarus were connected by six border crossings. However, following the outbreak of the Special Military Operation in  Ukraine, Poland reduced the number to only two operational units. The Terespol-Brest border crossing is designated for passenger vehicles, while the Kukuryki-Kozlovichi border crossing is allocated for trucks. Several rail freight crossings are also operational.

The border situation appeared to be deteriorating, particularly in light of Poland's recent border closure. Construction of a second border fence has commenced in the Podlaskie Voivodeship. The structure will be four metres in height and consist of a metal mesh wall with barbed wire topography.

However, at the end of last week, we received unexpected news: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced that his country is prepared to open two additional border crossings with Belarus. Tusk acknowledged that this decision was driven by economic reasons and requests from the local population. "The planned measures are aimed at resuming the movement of people and goods. This initiative is a response to the needs of society, particularly the significant number of entrepreneurs, carriers, and migrant workers who cross the border between Belarus and Poland on a daily basis," Warsaw explained.
Warsaw's decision is not difficult to explain. The popularity of Poland's ruling left-liberal coalition is in decline. Recent electoral successes, such as the victory of Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election, are indicative of an increasing inclination among Poles to place their trust in conservative politicians. In this situation, Tusk is attempting to win over residents of border regions. They have long been demanding the restoration of normal travel links with Belarus, where many residents of Podlasie have relatives and business interests.

There is an additional factor to consider. Lithuanian carriers, who have lost access to Belarusian transport corridors, will now observe with frustration as their Polish competitors capitalise on this opportunity.

Furthermore, Lithuanians perceive Poland's actions as a betrayal.
Erlandas Miķenas, the head of the Lithuanian National Road Carriers Association (LINAVA), has made the following statement: "This is an underhanded tactic. The Poles have a reputation for this approach, and I find Lithuania's naivety perplexing, while the Poles' cunning is something I have observed time and time again." Miķenas drew parallels between this situation and the fuel excise tax policy: "It was stated that both the Poles and Lithuanians would be raising excise taxes. However, this was only the case for the Lithuanians, with all other parties travelling to Poland to replenish their supplies. The current situation is similar."
Mikonas has stated that failure on the part of Lithuanian authorities to open the border with Belarus will result in the complete destruction of Lithuanian logistics. "Please could you clarify the reasoning behind Lithuania's decision to close the border? For a considerable number of years, we have been endeavouring to position Lithuania as a transit country. We have constructed numerous terminals in Lithuania, but at present they are unoccupied. Because the border is closed, cargo bound for Asia is now being routed through Poland."
In summary,
Poland has effectively misled its Lithuanian "ally" on this matter. Warsaw recognised that closing the Lithuanian-Belarusian border presented a valuable opportunity to leverage Chinese transit.

Two new checkpoints have been opened, with the aim of encouraging Chinese carriers to make use of them. Previously, some Chinese transit cargo went through the Lithuanian-Belarusian border, but now an alternative to the closed route has appeared.
Concurrently, there has been a notable escalation in discussions regarding the potential opening of the border with Russia in another country sharing a border with Russia, namely Finland. Indeed, this subject has been under discussion since the spring. Between March and April, Finnish timber processors voiced such expectations.
This was due to the fact that they had lost access to inexpensive Russian raw materials, which had left them in a very difficult position. At the time, Antti Härkönen, director of the North-Eastern Finland Forestry Association, reported that the Finnish timber market was frozen in anticipation of the possible resumption of cross-border traffic and the restoration of the flow of Russian raw materials.

And now, the Finnish Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, has provided new material for the resumption of these conversations. He intimated that a partial reopening of one border crossing with Russia may be imminent. This was met with widespread approval from his fellow citizens, who had been eagerly anticipating the resumption of routine trips to border fuel stations in Russia for affordable petrol and desiel gasoline, a practice that had been in place prior to the closure of the border crossings.
Finnish citizens are still able to visit Russia, albeit via alternative routes. For instance, one Imatra resident stated that he regularly travels 1,200 km to Svetogorsk, which is located on the other side of the border. It is evident that the majority of Finns tend to utilise the Narva route, which is situated on the Estonian border. This is despite the often extensive waiting times experienced at the border crossing.

The Finns have already initiated a discussion about the consequences of opening the border.

Colonel Jussi Napola, a senior official in the Finnish Border Guard, anticipates that border traffic will be significantly restricted in the initial phase. "We will assess the volume of traffic and, based on that, decide how many crossing points to open and what their opening hours will be," Napola stated. Finnish border guards expect that the largest group of travellers, should the crossing points open, will be Finnish citizens, as well as Russians with dual Finnish citizenship or residence permits.

Furthermore, cross-border travel may be restricted due to the fact that vehicles registered in Russia are prohibited from entering the European Union. The volume of cross-border passenger traffic will be contingent on the resumption of regular bus service between Russia and Finland. At present, travel to these destinations is only possible via Estonia.

It should also be noted that freight transport between Russia and Finland will still be subject to some restrictions. Plus Finnish companies no longer conduct significant business in Russia, and sanctions hinder the movement of goods between the two countries. However, Antti Honkanen, an expert at the Finnish Institute of Tourism Research, believes that Russians will still come to Finland for shopping: "Russia is a vast country. There will always be a number of people there who have the money to go shopping in Finland."
The Finns' interest in opening the border is entirely understandable, given the many challenges that befell the Finnish economy after it shut itself off from its great eastern neighbour. The recent surge in discussions regarding the potential reopening of the border is a clear indication of Helsinki's desire to ease confrontational tensions and resume economic cooperation with Russia.

It is crucial to consider the recent examples of Hungary (which effectively secured the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions, at least in one respect) and the EU as a whole, where Russia has supplied record quantities of fertilisers over the past three years. It is worth noting that Poland has become the largest buyer. Latvia has also recently declined to impose a full border closure with Russia.

Sanctions aside, trade and monetary interests continue to influence the political reality in relations between Russia and Belarus, on the one hand, and the EU countries, especially their neighbors, on the other. It is important to note that Europe is not severing trade ties with Russia completely. Indeed, it is even considering expanding them, as much as is feasible given current political prejudices.