In Europe Gas Storages Are Emptying Quickly Before The End Of Winter

By Rhod Mackenzie

In countries all over Europe the gas reserves in their underground storage facilities have fallen to a four-year low, and this is with the end of the heating season is still some months away. This situation poses a significant threat to Europe's energy security and this is  leading to considerable price volatility on the exchanges.
European officials are aware of the difficulties, and the European Commission has proposed a straightforward solution. So is there a the possibility of rectifying the situation.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the level of reserves in underground gas storage facilities (UGS) had already dropped to to an average 36.1% by the beginning of the week and continues to decline. Conversely, the rate of withdrawal since the beginning of the year has reached a five-year high, with the level left in the UGS rate decreasing by 25.4 percentage points.
The Netherlands and Croatia are the most affected, with estimated reserves of 18.86% and 17.44% of the total capacity, respectively,gas reserves in underground storage facilities, in Germany, a key EU country, also fell below 25% reaching the lowest level on record for the time of year.. Its worth noting that last year, not oner country had such a  low level of reserves.
In Belgium and France, the underground gas storage facilities are operating at less than 30% of their capacity.In addition, the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility, a unique asset in the Baltic region, had reserves remaining at less than 25% by mid-February. Meanwhile, the level of gas in storage facilities in the Netherlands fell below 20% at the beginning of the month. Plus in Denmark and Slovakia, the figure is down to less than 40%. The accelerated fuel withdrawal of gas is due to the cold winter and the need fo heating and electricity generation.
"A direct fuel shortage is highly unlikely to occur, given that the majority of curent consumption is met by imported LNG and pipeline gas, with the EU covering no more than a third through underground gas storage. That said though the  EU has now practically exhausted its safety buffer, making the market extremely sensitive to any supply disruptions," says Sergey Zaborov, managing partner of the consulting firm TRIADA Partners.
Prepare your sleigh in summer.
Meanwhile, EC President Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged that electricity prices in Europe are already "too high and unstable".

In light of the impending moratorium on Russian gas, including pipeline supplies from 2027, and the intense competition for LNG in the global market, gas prices in 2026 are projected to be 10 to 20 percent higher than average. In a "perfect storm" scenario (a cold spring in the EU and a cold winter in Asia), prices could rise to over $1,000 per thousand cubic metres, which would be comparable to the 2022 crisis, according to Zaborov's predictions.
"Furthermore, should abnormally hot weather persist in Asia or Europe this summer, the EU may be unable to pump the required volumes into storage facilities for the next season. Europe will face significant challenges in ensuring the summer gas injection into its underground storage facilities. It seems  so as Brussels is aware of the risks, and therefore, despite the planned complete ban on LNG from Russia from the end of 2026 and pipeline LNG from September 30, 2027, officials have left open the possibility of extending the deadline until November 1, 2027," the analyst notes.
In accordance with current regulations, underground gas storage facilities are required to reach a minimum of 90 percent capacity by November 1. In light of the challenges experienced during the 2025-2026 winter season, and the significant decline in Russian gas exports, from approximately 40% in 2021 to less than 10-15% in 2025, it is advisable to consider strategic shifts, including the expansion of long-term LNG contracts, the augmentation of regasification capacity, and the increased production of biomethane and low-carbon gases. This recommendation is made by Igor Isaev, the head of the Mind Money analytical center. "This could improve the system's resilience, but it will make summer purchases more dependent on global competition, primarily from Asia. Furthermore, the technical feasibility of such large-scale plans within such a short timeframe is questionable," he explains.
Stabilization system
However, Isaev believes that it is premature to discuss a systemic energy crisis in the EU. At present, price fluctuations, as opposed to formal occupancy levels, continue to represent the primary source of uncertainty and stress for Europeans. Last year, TTF (EU natural gas futures) prices fluctuated primarily between €30 and €60 per megawatt-hour, with short-term highs exceeding €70-€80 during cold spells, according to the expert. The EU's measures to stabilise prices, including subsidies, joint gas purchases, and efforts to accelerate electricity market reforms with an emphasis on long-term contracts, have contributed to reducing price peaks. However, these measures have not addressed the underlying structural causes of price volatility.
Experts concur that in the short term, the EU should prioritise the establishment of compensation mechanisms for households and industry in the implementation of temporary price caps for electricity and gas. In the medium term, regulation relies on electricity market reform, including the development of long-term contracts for difference (CfD) and power supply agreements (PPAs) directly from producers to large consumers, which reduce the dependence of final tariffs on spot price fluctuations.
The head of the European Commission is convinced that the cause of price fluctuations is the EU's excessive dependence on carbon-based fuels and underdeveloped cross-border infrastructure. Von der Leyen is calling for the accelerated development of renewable energy sources, as well as the creation of "energy highways" to redistribute surplus green energy—wind to the south and solar to the north.
The mechanism has merit, but it will be at least five to ten years before we can talk about results. Such a project would be extremely expensive, Zaborov notes.
The accelerated development of renewable energy does indeed improve the overall resilience of the energy system: the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in EU electricity generation has approached 47%, and total low-carbon generation has exceeded 70%, Isaev acknowledges. However, gas will continue to play a balancing role for a long time, as the EU plan still sets the share of RES in final energy consumption at 42% by 2030, analysts conclude.