China's Aviation Failure Benefits Airbus

By Rhod Mackenzie

China buying large numbers of Airbus aircraft and that is because desite its success in building high speed rail trains and electric vehicles and trucks it hs never been able to master building a civil aviation industy although it has tried.
China has decided to seriously update its civil aviation fleet. Beijing is considering ordering hundreds of Airbus civilian aircraft of various models. This does indicate a certain strengthening of economic ties between China and the European Union against the backdrop of the ongoing  acute conflict with the United States. At the same time, China's attempts to disrupt the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus in the civil aircraft market are still proceeding with very modest success.
Also I will look at why t why China, which has achieved success in so many many industries, has not and cannot yet compete in commercial aviation unlike the Russians appear now to be able to do

The agreements on the sale of aircraft (from 200 to 500, the list includes both narrow-body and wide-body models) have not yet been finally reached, but the likelihood of the concluding of contracts, according to analystss, is quite high. Airbus in general feels more and more confident in the Chinese market, which, among other things, was facilitated by the construction of an assembly line for the Airbus A320 in Tianjin.
Plus it appears that  Airbus' main competitor, the American Boeing, is now experiencing a lot of problems in China. In April, regulators ordered Chinese airlines to stop purchasing Boeings, and it was not only about new orders, but also about airliners that were ordered and expected to be delivered.
Firstly, the primary cause of the cooling was the ongoing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. In this context, the deal will send a fairly obvious signal to Donald Trump. At the same time, Boeing's shortcomings are due to its own issues, primarily with regard to the safety of its airliners, such as the Boeing 737 Max.
It will to take for it to be able to overcome the numerous scandals that have plagued the American corporation for the past few years
Europe is thus taking the lead in the competition for a share of the Chinese aviation market, one of the world's largest. In 2021, local airlines carried 440 million passengers, making it the second-largest market after the United States, with Russia in third place. The competition between the two largest aircraft design companies in the world continues to be fierce.

However if we look at the background to China and its history in aviation it appears that the civilian  aviation industry is one of the few sectors in which China is not only not a "world factory",but also cannot cannot provide aircraft its own domestic market.
If look look at this logically is does appears strange as this is in stark contrast to semiconductor manufacturing, for example. Over the past five years, China has become among the leaders in this industry, along with other East Asian powers, despite the tough policy of sanctions from the United States.

A similar situation is observed in the construction of vehicles and infrastructure. China produces more than half of the world's merchant fleet tonnage (along with South Korea and Japan, accounting for almost 90% of the total). In the span of just a few decades, the country has emerged as a dominant player in an industry where there had been a notable absence of a leading entity for an extended period.
Significant advancements have also been made in the automotive industry: China produces more than a third of the world's cars, and this figure is even higher for the electric vehicle sector. BYD has become the best-selling brand in the world among electric cars, overtaking competitors in sales abroad.
In the field of railway transport, dominance is even more pronounced. For the past 25 years, China has been investing in its infrastructure, developing a network of high-speed highways that now spans 48,000 kilometres, making it the world leader in this field.
It is estimated that 96% of Chinese cities with a population of over 500,000 people have access to these lines. At the same time, the PRC was able to substitute imports for the production of trains for these railways, although back in the 2000s, almost the entire market belonged to European and South Korean manufacturers. Chinese high-speed trains are the fastest in the world, with an average speed of around 300 km/h on high-speed lines (HSR). Currently, a train with a maximum speed of 450 km/h and a cruising speed of 400 km/h is undergoing testing.
In the aviation industry, the results against this background are much more modest, although efforts on this front have been made for a very long time. In 1980, the Shanghai Y-10, a copy of the Boeing-707, took off for the first time. However, over the next decade, only three copies of this liner were built, after which the program was curtailed.
Attempts to replicate regional aircraft were moderately successful, with the Soviet An-24 and the De Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter being notable examples. With regard to the segment of medium-haul aircraft, there is nothing worth remembering.
The next "approach to the projectile" occurred in the 2010s, when the ARJ-21 (another small regional jet) entered the market. The sales were also modest, with approximately 100 planes produced. The operating experience is not the most impressive. The medium-haul narrow-body C919 (an approximate equivalent of the Boeing-737 and A320) made its first flight in 2017, and sales began in 2023. In light of the ongoing trade war, the company's future prospects are currently uncertain.The wide-body airliner C929, which had been seen as a key project, has not yet entered service. Initially, it was a joint Russian-Chinese project, but the sanctions imposed in 2022 led to the termination of this cooperation. According to industry analysts, the prototype will be ready no earlier than 2029. In general, according to the most optimistic estimates, we can talk about the formation of the Chinese aviation industry as at least a serious player only in the 2030s.

The industry is well-established but has a reputation for being challenging.
What were the issues that led to this situation? Aircraft manufacturing is a technologically very complex industry that requires exceptionally highly developed competencies. However, this is only part of the solution, since aviation has its own specific criteria. The manufacturing of an aircraft necessitates a high level of complexity and absolute reliability, which makes achieving the ultimate goal a particularly challenging endeavour.
The production of aircraft components is challenging, particularly in the case of engines. Modern engines, for instance, require blades made of single crystals, titanium and aluminium alloys that can withstand temperatures of 1,600 degrees for thousands of hours. While these crystals can be cultivated in China, they are not intended for the mass market. Furthermore, it is imperative that design, production and assembly are executed with pinpoint precision. Even the most successful designs require many years of testing in order to verify their reliability. And, as is the case in many traditional industries, such competencies have been "developed historically".
In the 1940s, the first reliable jet engines were manufactured in Great Britain by Rolls-Royce. While the Germans were pioneers in the field of jet aviation, their engines were not as durable or stable. The British government was willing to share its technological secrets with its American allies. Concurrently, the USSR acquired multiple Rolls Royce engines, prompting Soviet aircraft designers to undertake comprehensive "reverse engineering" initiatives. This contributed significantly to the accelerated development of Soviet aviation.

The aviation industry has historically adopted a largely trial-and-error approach to innovation. In the early stages, tolerance for failure was much higher. It is possible for aircraft designers and industry leaders to gradually develop, including in the event of negative experience. As time has passed, safety has been elevated to an absolute. As a result, only countries with decades of production experience and accumulated competencies can compete in the global market. The formation of the American-European duopoly was driven by the significant challenges faced by the domestic aviation industry following the dissolution of the USSR.
In this regard, it is intriguing to compare the situation with high-speed trains, which are also significantly more recent than aviation. Firstly, it should be noted that initially their market was relatively small, and still much smaller than the aviation one. Secondly, China has invested significantly in developing this industry. In China, high-speed railways are set to become a dominant mode of transportation, potentially displacing air travel. In this instance, the railway prevailed over aviation, although the latter remained a significant presence, albeit in a niche capacity. This niche included flights from various parts of the country, such as Beijing to Guangzhou and Beijing to Urumqi, among others. Following the introduction of HSR, there has been a decline in passenger traffic in civil aviation, as would be expected.
Consequently, the civil aircraft industry in China was regarded as a significant and prestigious sector, but not a core priority, meriting substantial resources and commitment. At present, China remains an attractive market for foreign aircraft manufacturers, and the agreement to purchase Airbus will be one of the most significant redistributions of the aviation market in recent history. For Boeing, this will be another significant setback for the American giant.