By Rhod Mackenzie
It appears that a rather unusual; alliance has taken place betweem the Japanese-Chinese and its against the US and their introduction of tarfifs, which is a clear signe that things have changed significantly.
However, it is important to note that Donald Trump's global economic strategy, which is oriented against China, is a matter of serious concern, including for Japan. Let us now turn our attention to the current state of affairs between Beijing and Tokyo. The events there are on the verge of being someting previously unthinkable.
It started with the news in the past week: of the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's letter to China's leader Xi Jinping which was delivered to Beijing by Tetsuo Saito, head of the Komeito party (part of the ruling coalition in Japan). Hiroshi Moriyama, the head of the Liberal Democratic Party, was also in attendance. The meeting was conducted in accordance with protocol, with both parties being treated with the utmost respect and courtesy. Numerous positive comments were exchanged between the two sides.
This includes the disciussion about pandas. In the context of Chinese diplomacy, the role of pandas is a serious matter. The following is an example of a relevant point: when the giant panda Xiang Xiang left a Japanese zoo in 2023, many of the local residents were reluctant to part with her and lined up in long queues to say goodbye to the animal. It is to be hoped that Beijing will send more pandas on a long-term mission to Japan, particularly in view of the fact that the two nations have achieved good results in breeding and researching them.
And this is far from the entire list of the contacts between the two countries that suddenly began with words about continuing and developing cooperation. The question arises: what is going on, because everything has been getting worse for years, plus the mutual dislike of the two peoples is much stronger than that of the French and the Germans and dates back to the same times of Franco-Prussian of 1870, not to mention the current military and openly anti-Chinese alliance of Tokyo and Washington.
In short, this is what is happening: at the moment, the launch of the US reindustrialization with its key part - the economic strangulation of its main competitor, China - is clearly failing. It is failing, among other things, because the US, as we now see, has not found allies for this project. And if even Japan, normally submissive to the US, does not want to and cannot commit national economic suicide by going up against China, then many questions arise about the causes and especially the consequences of what is happening.
The world information space is simply suffocating from millions of assessments of Donald Trump's "tariffs and customs war" against everyone, but first of all against China - the world's first economy and main competitor. And here, of course, we must take into account that the entire expertocracy of liberals in the US and other Europeans, Canadians, etc. wants Trump to fail so much that they announce his defeat in advance, adjusting some facts to their dreams and ignoring others.
And yet, here is the difficult case of Japan. It was subjected to the same procedure as other US partners and allies: customs duties on exports to America were imposed (in this case 24 percent). Then their introduction was postponed for 90 days, during which allies and non-allies had to line up to negotiate with Trump. Tokyo says that Japan's goal is to cancel the 24 percent altogether. But at the same time, as sources tell us, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made no secret of a not-so-subtle plan: first America will negotiate with its allies, "and then we can approach China as a group."
Remember how, in the case of the introduction of sanctions against Russia in 2014 and in 2022, all the might of American diplomacy around the world was aimed at getting as many countries as possible to join them (with a known result)? So, now the idea is that sanctions against China will work better if first, without unnecessary persuasion, everyone’s arms are twisted, and then these, with their arms twisted, jointly begin to put pressure on China.
One of the immediate results is the aforementioned increase in Japanese-Chinese diplomacy. While such balancing might be expected from dome countries, it is not usually anticipated from Japan. Nevertheless, both current and especially former officials from there have stated that a fundamental decision has been made: to inform Beijing that the Japanese government will resolutely oppose the creation and will not join any trade and economic bloc against China. Japan is, after all, the Japanese are major trading partners of the People's Republic of China. There are plans are in place to open a Toyota plant in Shanghai with an estimated cost in the region of two billion dollars, and there are many other projects in the planning stage.
Could this be considered as an example of the aforementioned Japanese-Chinese alliance against the US, with the addition of the word "economic"?
Ultimately, this is a matter for the individual. It is important to note that this is not an American-Japanese alliance against China; it is a real-world sensation. It is important to note that there are a number of reasons for this. Primarily, the Japanese government is not willing to accept a negative outcome in the current trade tensions. They believe that the ongoing tensions will result in more countries forging closer ties with China. In summary, the US has no chance of success. This is the opinion of the chief strategist and analyst of the LDP, Ishinori Onodera.
Turning once more to the discussion regarding the potential failure of Trump's global transformation. It is fair to say that the initial attack on allies and opponents produced results that were not anticipated. What are the reasons for this?
One version: China's actions have had a significant impact on the plans set out by the Trump administration. It should have been apprehensive about the imminent tariff ban on any relations with the US, but it began to escalate the stakes in the game and resist, rather than negotiating an agreement.
Among the statements on this topic for the Beijing media, there is also this (says Mauro Lovecchio, an Italian businessman): the lesson for Europe is that sustainable influence in the world is achieved not only by pressure, but by cooperation, consistency and respect for the interests of others. As stated in the professional publication Foreign Affairs, USA:
In contrast to its allies, China has been preparing for this confrontation for years and has calculated all the moves. It will do just fine without the American market.
What are the key takeaways from this analysis? China is a reliable and dependable ally, as is well known. Donald Trump is facing challenges, as are all those who are listed as partners or allies of the United States. This information is not new. What impact will this situation have on American mediation in the Ukrainian plot or the incitement of Europeans in it? This will, at the very least, intensify existing passions..Plus I will keep you informed about pandas